GLEaM has been used in a new publication comparing the performance of  large-scale computational approaches to  the modeling of infectious disease spreading The detailed results can be found in the manuscript: Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models Marco Ajelli, Bruno Gonçalves, Duygu Balcan, Vittoria Colizza, Hao Hu, Jose J Ramasco, [...]

The Public Edition of the GLEaMviz Simulator becomes available. The GLEaMviz Simulator is a software system with an intuitive and flexible GUI for the simulation of emerging infectious diseases spreading across the world, that we developed during the last 2 years. The software system levers on GLEaM, and its design maximizes flexibility in the definition of [...]

The Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) computational platform has been developed over many years and it has been used mostly for research purposes. The final goal of this project is however the development of a computational tool to be used to forecast and anticipate the spreading of emerging diseases, as we have attempted and documented [...]

The 22nd edition of the Edinburgh International Science Festival, running from April 3 to 17, 2010, features a special event, Meet the Medics and Vets, with the contribution of: Epidemic Planet - explore how H1N1 influenza travels around the world and how intervention measures may help Epidemic Planet  is the visualization application developed in the context of [...]

The February 2010 issue of Physics World presents a special focus on Complexity and challenges in Network Science. From mapping the rise of the field, to examples of applications rooted in our everyday life, to charting the field’s possible future evolution, the special issue explores the key topics of Network Science - a field where physicists [...]

In the issue of December the 22nd of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, we publish a paper that discusses the interplay of human mobility patterns like those between local metropolitan commuters and long-range airline travelers during a global epidemic. The image of the worldwide mobility network constructed in our paper has been [...]

We recently published a knol in PLoS Currents Influenza about the estimate of the demand for critical care and antibiotic usage due to the Fall 2009 wave of pandemic Influenza H1N1. Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic D Balcan, V Colizza, AC Singer, C Chouaid, [...]

We recently published a knol in PLoS Currents Influenza about the estimate of H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic conducted with GLEaM: Estimate of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic with a spatially structured epidemic model V Colizza, A Vespignani, N Perra, C Poletto, B [...]

The results of our analysis on the impact of the vaccination campaign on the H1N1 influenza appear in the manuscript Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere P Bajardi, C Poletto, D Balcan, H Hu, B Goncalves, JJ Ramasco, D Paolotti, N Perra, M Tizzoni, W [...]

The coupled animations show the geotemporal evolution of the swine flu epidemic in the United States, by comparing the observed pattern (left) with the simulated one (right). Simulations refer to the baseline scenario obtained from the maximum likelihood analysis used to estimate the transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1).

Airneth is a worldwide scientific network for aviation research and policy, which has started a series of columns by its fellows, in which they touch upon their current research and/or aviation projects. In a special issue Airneth Column, titled  “People interact. They travel. And diseases might travel with them”, Vittoria Colizza discusses the effects of travel [...]

The animation shows the predicted geotemporal evolution of the H1N1 flu epidemic in Europe for the next fall, comparing the no intervention scenario (left map) with a scenario in which mitigation strategies are considered (right map). Simulations for the no intervention scenario are obtained from the maximum likelihood analysis used to estimate the transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1). The antiviral treatment scenario foresees the use of antiviral drugs administered to 30% of the clinical cases within one day from the onset of symptoms.

The animation shows the predicted geotemporal evolution of the H1N1 flu epidemic in the United States for the next fall, comparing the no intervention scenario (left map) with a scenario in which mitigation strategies are considered (right map). Simulations for the no intervention scenario are obtained from the maximum likelihood analysis used to estimate the transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1). The antiviral treatment scenario foresees the use of antiviral drugs administered to 30% of the clinical cases within one day from the onset of symptoms.

The results of our study on the estimation of the seasonal transmission potential of the H1N1 flu appear in the manuscript Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility D Balcan, H Hu, B Goncalves, P Bajardi, C Poletto, JJ Ramasco, D Paolotti, N Perra, [...]

On June 11th the World Health Organization has officially raised the phase of pandemic alert to level 6. As of July 19th, 137,232 cases of the new H1N1 influenza strain have been officially confirmed in 142 different countries. Given the wide diffusion of the virus and the large number of cases the WHO has stopped keeping track of the number of cases. Since the end of May, however, most of the countries heavily affected by the virus relaxed on a regular surveillance system that could imply an underreporting of influenza cases by a factor 5 to 30 depending on various circumstances. For instance estimates for Mexico underreporting ranges from one to almost 3 orders of magnitude.

This report provides the current situation for the number of cases worldwide, and the projections for the expected number of cases for May 31. The projections are obtained from the most recent calibration of the model, with the available information as of May 16. The simulations consider the worst case scenario, where no intervention is [...]